Tech and jobs, part two

There's an interesting company, Kiva Systems, that make a very cool robotic shelving system.  Here's a video.



OK, so it's technologically cool.  And, more to the point, it's very efficient.  According to an interview with Wired, it allows a single person to pack three times the number of orders!

Now think about it a bit.  Unless the warehouse needs to pick and ship three times as much product they no longer need as many pickers.  A classic case of technological job destruction in the absence of growth.

But, that's not the only risk associated with this kind of technology.  Consider that when a customer places an order the order can get filled faster.  Faster fulfillment means faster delivery.  Faster delivery means less need for inventory on site.  Don't think so?  Go down to a nearby CVS or other chain drug store.  Walk around the building.  Note that there is NO inventory storage.  Hang out in the store a bit and watch a store employee open a shipping container filled with a variety of products and restock shelves with 3 of this and 5 of that.

Part of what's going on here is, of course, real time inventory control.  Part of it is much more efficient restocking systems.  Now consider what happens if something goes wrong with that wonderfully efficient restocking system.  CVS is out of stock very quickly.  Not much of an issue if it's toothpaste.  Perhaps a bunch of bad breath but no big harm.  But what if it's a patient's medicine?  Now there's a bigger downside.

There's a bit of supply elasticity since there's another CVS in the next town along.  But how long will their inventory last?

Technological efficient systems while wonderfully efficient are not very elastic.  They are not very robust and are often subject to cascading failures.  If something goes wrong with such systems negative consequences occur very rapidly and can cascade to effect many many people.  Don't think so?  Remember the 1965 North East blackout caused by an improperly set relay.  A small human error caused 30 million people to loose electrical power.  Of course, there were a few independent power companies whose customers were blissfully unaware of the problem.

Common Sense's point is that technology doesn't care about such things.  It is entirely neutral when it comes to jobs, stability, elasticity, and many many other values that most people desire.  Technology isn't good.  It isn't bad.  It just is.  If we exercise common sense when we use technology then we can create a better world.  If we don't, then we can be sure that the results will be a very mixed bag.  It's up to us and such common sense as we can muster.