Common Sense, Safety, Consequences, and Payout - Gulf Oil Disaster

The current events in the Gulf of Mexico oil leak has reminded me of something I've long known to be true about technology and consequences.  There is a certain tendency to regard technology as somehow inherently safe. 
There's a sort of "If we can do it once or twice safely then it's safe." 

We see this notion frequently.  For example, oil tankers move oil all over the world every day without serious incident.  Therefore, moving oil by tanker is safe.  But is it?  We know about the Exxon Valdez who's accident destroyed a fishery.  We still don't know how long it might take the fishery to recover.  So are oil tankers safe?  Really safe?

The notion of safety is inexorably linked to consequences and payout. 

Suppose that you engage in an activity that is reasonably safe.  Suppose that the chance of accident is one in a thousand.  Would you view the activity as safe?  So far it's not really possible to say.  If the consequence of failure is small, say the loss of a $10 entrance fee then you might well regard the activity as safe since you are easily able to bear the consequence.  But suppose the consequence is that you and your family die.  Now is the activity safe?  Loosing your life and the lives of your family is a severe consequence.  One that few would risk unless the payout is very large.  Now suppose that the payout for success is that you and your family can live safely in a free society while the consequence of doing noting is that you and your family must live out your lives in an oppressive society.  Now is the activity safe, at least in the sense that you might rationally undertake it?

What does this have to do with the Gulf oil spill?  Consider.  Can oil wells be successfully drilled in deep water?  The answer, demonstrated by many such successful wells is clearly yes.  Can these wells be successfully operated without incident?  Again, based on experience, the answer is clearly yes.  Are they therefore safe?  Now we must deal with consequences and payout.  If the well operates successfully without incident we get oil to fuel our cars, power our homes, and drive our economy.  That's a very significant payout.  But if even one of these wells fails the consequence are an Exxon Valdez oil spill twice a week into the indefinite future and the destruction of a very productive fishery in the Gulf.  That's a very significant consequence.  Moreover, it's a consequence that may last for a very long time, certainly many 10s of years, likely many hundreds of years. 

Is the benefit from oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico that will produce oil for a few tens of years worth the risk of the destruction of a major fishery for many hundreds of years?  Common sense suggest that it probably isn't.  While the risk may be small, the consequence of failure is so large as to outweigh the benefits.