Obama and Afganistan

From CNN:

• Extra 30,000 U.S. troops to secure uncovered areas, help Afghan security forces train
• Obama said he hopes to start transferring U.S. forces out of Afghanistan in July 2011.
  
• Troop buildup just one strategy to achieve goals in Afghanistan, Obama says
• U.S. also to pursue more effective civilian strategy, Obama says
• Better partnership with Pakistan also essential, Obama says

In October 2001 the US went to war in Afganistan following the Al-Queda 9/11 attacks.  After the initial invasion, the US gained significant control of most of the country and its nominal government relatively quickly.  However, contrary to much popular belief the Taliban and Al-Queda was not defeated, at least not in the sense of defeating an organized government as one can not defeat an idea.

Now, some 8 years on the US through its president proposes to send some 30000 extra troops hoping to improve the situation so that US forces can begin leaving in July 2011.

While I have been in wars and in Afghanistan I do regard myself as an expert in either.  That said I offer the following common sense:

Much of Afghanistan is very harsh and difficult terrain.  While additional forces can help, 30,000 is not nearly enough to actually subdue a very determined enemy under these circumstances.

This strategy depends on establishing a functioning government in Afghanistan.  Unfortunately, the country has never had a functioning government in the sense that the US or other western countries have.  There is in my view and the history of several other failures no hope of creating such a government in the hoped for time frame.

Notwithstanding the above, leaving Afghanistan and possibly Pakistan to the Taliban and Al-Queda is unacceptably dangerous for the US.  9/11 happened.  Al-Queda is a sworn enemy of the US.  An  enemy that finds motivation in a perverted interpretation of Islam.  In that part of the world such enmity is taken very seriously.  Much as everyone might wish it otherwise, the US is hated and while that hatred has means it will lead to continued attacks on the US.

I have no clever solution to offer but I note that common sense dictates that 30,000 troops will help but not lead to anything that can be understood as victory, 18 months is not nearly enough time to create sustainable government institutions it will take many years, and the US dare not allow the Taliban to regain control of the area and provide another haven for Al-Queda