Job Creation Falacies - Automation

I recently listen to some experts talk about job creation. I have thought for some time that most of what is offered about job creation is naive nonsense. Here's why.

First a bit of history. Consider farm jobs. Today there are less than half as many farm jobs as there were in 1900. That's fact. Why? It turns out that two factors drove that change. Better farming practices, better seeds, better fertilizer, a better understanding of how to farm had a major impact. The other and more significant driver was automation, better farm machinery. This is an example of jobs where there is no realistic possibility of bringing these jobs back. Farmers are simply not going to abandon the machines that make modern farming work. Those jobs are gone and are not coming back.

The impact of automation can be seen elsewhere in the economy. Consider that over the last 25 years US manufactured goods exports have more quadrupled! Meanwhile the portion manufacturing jobs to all jobs in the US has dropped by more than 50%. Simply put, automation has meant that fewer people produce much more product. Manufacturers are simply not going to abandoned efficient competitive practices to create new jobs. The manufacturing jobs replaced by automation are simply gone and are not coming back. That said it should be noted that manufacturing jobs are in fact growing particularly among small manufacturers as manufactured goods exports continue to grow particularly among free trade partners.

To date, automation has substituted machinery for human labor as in farming or sell structured activity as in assembly lines. We are now starting to see automation impact less well structured jobs. Machine shops are a good example. There are several machine shops near my home that now employ less than half as many machinist as they once did since adopting CNC machine tools that allow a single person to do the work of many even when that work is both highly skilled and less well structured. Those jobs are gone. Work in that segment will require new skills in CNC tool use and growth in the demand for low volume CNC manufacturing.



There is a new and dramatically more disruptive automation on the horizon. Several firms are testing self driving cars. The impact of this technology goes well beyond professional drivers in two ways. First it promises to be disruptive of the transportation infrastructure generally. Why should I take a train when I can use a self driving car to go directly from where I am to where I want to go? For that matter why should I even own a car when one will come for me when I need it?

Second, and more importantly, it is an example of automation of a highly unstructured activity! If you can make a self driving car operating in a mixed ill structured world what then can not be automated?

All of this raises the issue of what happens when there are simply not enough jobs for those that want or need to work?  Society has been organized around work for almost all of human history. What happens when work as an organizing principle is no longer essential?

How Pizzagate went from fake news to a real problem for a D.C. business

Came across this today.

How Pizzagate went from fake news to a real problem for a D.C. business

It got to thinking about the internet, reality, and Trump voters. I posted this comment.

Trumplandia internet users ... Several things about the internet that you need to know. First, most of what you learn from the internet is simply untrue. Second, most of what is left is biased, self serving, and devoid of context to the point of being intentional distortion. Finally, there is much of value. But here's the thing, you have to take the trouble to actually check facts and think critically. Other than that you are at best engaging in self delusion. Just saying.

Blowing smoke is not a substitute for reason or rationality.

CNN Panel: Jeffrey Lord Tries to MINIMIZE Trump's China Blunder, "SO WHAT?"

During this video Mr Lord made several arguments.

First, he argued that others presidents made changes and then proceeded to offer a series of false equivalencies trying to justify Mr Trump's most recent blunder in foreign relations. It's important to note that such equivalencies are intended to distract from the actions of someone who is clearly unqualified.

Second, he argued that America voted 'to do things differently' and that America wanted this sort of 'differently'. There are a number of problems with this entirely specious argument. To begin with several million more America voters actually voted for Ms Clinton than voted for Mr Trump. Trump doesn't have a 'mandate' that can justify any and all acts.

Beyond that is the issue of 'what change'. Mr Lord would have you accept the proposition that the desired change includes these sort of actions. But is that true or is it more likely true that voters wanted a government that worked for the good of all not just big money and big business.

Third, later Lord offered the observation that 'we tried it your way and government is a mess'. While it is certainly true that most Americans think government is a mess based on numerous opinion polls is  it true that 'we tried it your way'? In fact it is not. For much of the last several presidencies we have government by obstruction where a small group of politicians, more often than not radical right Republicans, have adopted a 'my way or the highway' style of politics including actually shutting down the Federal government. In that environment the country has become essentially ungovernable and no President got their 'way'.

Specious unthinking and uncritical arguments such as Mr Lord makes are part of the problem. They are not about reality or policy. They simply promote the dysfunctional view that this is about two teams driven by emotion. America deserves better.

Just saying.

Why I am concerned for America's future

I have voted in 14 presidential elections. I have voted for Republicans. I have voted for Democrats. I have voted for Independents. I have written in a candidate. On two occasions I voted for a major party nominee that I thought was actually a good choice for President. More often than not I have held my nose and voted for the less bad of two candidates. More often than not I voted for the loosing candidate. On two occasions I watched the voters elect a seriously bad President and watched as the most severe economic recession occurred.

For all of this I have not feared for the future of America. Our society is generally educated. Our principles are extremely progressive and inclusive. Most Americans at least say they support those principles. Our economy is large and strong enough to survive even extreme mismanagement and disruption.

But in this election something fundamental has changed. We have elected someone who clearly does not believe in American principles. A man who is unable to govern his own emotions. Someone who is not just racist (we've had racist presidents before) in private but racist in public. Someone who can not distinguish between his own delusional wishful thinking and reality. We have elected a pathological liar unable to be truthful when the truth would serve as well as a lie. Someone completely enamored of his own importance. Someone who is not just unfit or unqualified but someone who is actually dangerous.

Like many Americans I hoped, notwithstanding all evidence to the contrary, that in the process of forming a government Trump would choose people that while holding different views than I do at least held arguably rational reasonable views. That he might actually be an agent of change and appoint people committed to what is good for the American public. Enough appointments have now been announced that it is now entirely clear that this is not so. Rather it is clear that the same policies and people that created the problems America faces remain in positions of power.

I have watched as over the last 30 years we have abandoned the politics of policy and turned to the politics of party. As we have abandoned the notion that government should act to the benefit of the governed and bought into the absurd obscene notion that government's principle function is to support big business. As we have bought in yet again to the notion that somehow trickle down economics works to benefit the average person; never mind that we have tried it several times and it just doesn't work. I have watched as we changed American tax policy to favor big business and the wealthy arguing that that's good for the rest of us; never mind that we keep doing it and the result is wealth inequality that historically leads to societal collapse.

That's why I am concerned. That's why you should have a good think and decide if you are also concerned.

Just saying.